Thrust and Take-off Weight: How’s the Decarbonization of Freight Transport Going?
2022 is wrapping up. A lot has happened in the past months. From climate activists on the streets to fossil fuel activists at COP27, many interest groups have impacted the discourse surrounding the decarbonization of freight transport.
This article is a blog post by Prof. Dr. Moritz Petersen and was originally published by the German Logistics Association (BVL).
But what happened in 2022 operationally? Where do the 500,000 primarily small actors of European road freight transport stand? “Decarbonizing Freight 2022,” a study by Transporeon, the Smart Freight Centre, and my colleague Alan McKinnon at Kühne Logistics University, offers some insight. Transportation service providers and their customers were surveyed about various environmental sustainability topics for the third year in succession. An analysis of the previous year’s results can be found here; this year’s entire study is available here. So, where do we stand? I’ll focus on three points.
Calculation competence: Just under 60% of the transport service providers surveyed indicated that they can calculate transport-related greenhouse gas emissions. That sounds good, and it’s a substantial improvement on the previous year’s figure. However, this also means that in 2022, 40% of transport service providers still cannot calculate their emissions. Even though the first step really isn’t difficult: You multiply fuel consumption by a standard emissions factor. So what’s the real reason?
Alternative fuels: Regarding the alternative fuels that transport service providers prioritize, a marked shift occurred compared to last year from hydrogen to biodiesel, HVO, and LNG. Solutions that are less capital-intensive on average and available today but also have lower savings potential are growing in popularity.
Fuel efficiency: As for the measures known and being used to obtain higher fuel efficiency, transport service providers used the bank to explain that options discussed for decades – such as aerodynamic improvements, low rolling resistance tires, and driver training – are only known and being used to a surprisingly limited extent. For a low-margin industry, that seems paradoxical. Or does it?
As a scientist, it’s important that I make a disclaimer, which is often left out in interpreting such studies. The results are not necessarily representative of the overall population of European transport service providers. Further, the 2021 and 2022 samples are very similar but not identical. Differences can, at least in part, be random.
But back to the topic. Overall, the survey results show that things are moving in the right direction. With enough momentum? I’m skeptical there, but then I remembered a conversation I had a few months ago. Wolfgang Lehmacher compared the efforts towards decarbonizing transport to a rocket launch. An enormous expenditure of energy goes into takeoff, but at the beginning, it looks like nothing is moving. Until the rocket lifts off and continues to accelerate. I like this image because it allows for an optimistic outlook.
For a rocket to lift off, the thrust has to be greater than the take-off weight. The thrust power is increasing. That’s obvious beyond the empirical snapshot presented here. The ambitious reduction targets of logistics providers and shippers, legislative initiatives, many highly motivated sustainability officers, increasing technological maturity, and “real” alternatives to fossil fuels initially penetrating the market – the list of positive signals is long. Unfortunately, however, the rocket’s take-off weight is also growing due to rising greenhouse gas emissions and commonplace greenwashing. And because of sitting around and waiting: “Now is not the right time to start. We have other fires to put out first.” Or “I’ll wait until one way ahead prevails.” I’ve often heard such sentiments in the past months. In 2023, my wish for us is that all actors finally start building up thrust power. To do so, we don’t need a perfect plan for the future. With this rocket, the general direction should be clear.