The Long-term Diffusion of Digital Platforms — An Agent-based Model

Abstract

In recent years, many industries have experienced the rise of digital platforms (e.g., eBay, Uber, or Takeaway.com). A common characteristic of these concepts is that they focus on fragmented markets populated by many small firms, which often show a high fluctuation. However, established diffusion models based on Bass (1969) do not account for fluctuation in the market potential, although the exit of adopters and the entry of new firms could change the diffusion curve significantly. Thus, we propose an extension of the Bass Model to account for the exit and entry of (potential) adopters and empirically test this framework in a real-world setting. Using two decades of adopter data of leading digital platforms and information on the complete market potential, we employ agent-based models to analyze the effects of fluctuation on the platform diffusion. Initial results confirm the existence of high fluctuation and indicate relevant impacts on the diffusion curve.

Biography

Jan Schalowski is a PhD Candidate in the field of Marketing at Kühne Logistics University. Jan's work is embedded in the German Research Foundation (DFG) Research Unit about the marketing of hedonic media products in the context of digital social media. His research focus lies on the analysis of social networks for targeted marketing communication.
Previously, he worked as a research assistant at the Innovation Incubator at the Leuphana University of Lüneburg for almost three years. There he contributed significantly to the establishment of a regional start-up panel with finally 1,000 participants.
At the University of Hamburg, Jan Schalowski studied Business Administration and obtained a diploma degree (equivalent to M.Sc.) in 2012. In the scope of his diploma thesis in Marketing, he carried out a panel analysis to investigate the consequences of digital piracy on music sales.

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