The KLU faculty, post-docs, and PhD candidates regularly publish the results of their research in scientific journals. You will find a complete overview of all KLU publications below (e.g. articles in peer-reviewed journals, professional journals, books, working papers, and conference proceedings). Search for relevant terms and keywords, or filter the list by name, year of publication or type of publication. The references include DOIs and abstracts where available, and you can download them to your own reference database or platform. We regularly update the database with new publications.

Journal Articles (Peer-Reviewed)

DOI: 10.1016/j.ejor.2018.09.049 

Abstract: This paper considers an unsignalized intersection used by two traffic streams. The first stream of cars is using a primary road, and has priority over the other stream. Cars belonging to the latter stream cross the primary road if the gaps between two subsequent cars on the primary road are larger than their critical headways. A question that naturally arises relates to the capacity of the secondary road: given the arrival pattern of cars on the primary road, what is the maximum arrival rate of low-priority cars that can be sustained? This paper addresses this issue by considering a compact model that sheds light on the dynamics of the considered unsignalized intersection. The model, which is of a queueing-theoretic nature, reveals interesting insights into the impact of the user behavior on the capacity. The contributions of this paper are threefold. First, we introduce a new way to analyze the capacity of the minor road. By representing the unsignalized intersection by an appropriately chosen Markovian model, the capacity can be expressed in terms of the solution of an elementary system of linear equations. The setup chosen is so flexible that it allows us to include a new form of bunching on the main road that allows for dependence between successive gaps, which we refer to as Markov platooning; this is the second contribution. The tractability of this model facilitates studying the impact that driver impatience and various platoon formations on the main road have on the capacity of the minor road. Finally, in numerical experiments we observe various surprising features of the aforementioned model. (published online first)

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Open reference in new window "Congestion analysis of unsignalized intersections: The impact of impatience and Markov platooning"

DOI: doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.02.015 

Abstract: Many port authorities have developed ambitious strategies to foster hinterland intermodal transportation. In addition, port-centric logistics, that is, the provision of distribution facilities and value-adding activities in the port area, has expanded in multiple ports. Obviously, such port-centric logistics may impact the operations in the hinterland substantially and could potentially reduce opportunities for intermodal transport in the hinterland. We analyze the interaction between port-centric logistics and hinterland intermodal transportation. We take a logistics service provider’s perspective and we include some key elements in the model, such as detention fees, extra handling, transport efficiency and empty container repositioning. We develop new analytical results identifying the optimal market areas of truck-only transportation, port-centric logistics and hinterland intermodal transportation. Our results show that tension between port-centric logistics and hinterland intermodal transportation is quite likely to happen in practice. We additionally study the use of continental containers as a way to reconcile port-centric logistics and hinterland intermodal transportation and we derive further results. We illustrate our results via an example and we highlight managerial insights.

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Open reference in new window "Identifying the market areas of port-centric logistics and hinterland intermodal transportation"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.is.2022.102035 

Abstract: Process mining techniques are valuable to gain insights into and help improve (work) processes. Many of these techniques focus on the sequential order in which activities are performed. Few of these techniques consider the statistical relations within processes. In particular, existing techniques do not allow insights into how responses to an event (action) result in desired or undesired outcomes (effects). We propose and formalize the ARE miner, a novel technique that allows us to analyze and understand these action-response-effect patterns. We take a statistical approach to uncover potential dependency relations in these patterns. The goal of this research is to generate processes that are: (1) appropriately represented, and (2) effectively filtered to show meaningful relations. We evaluate the ARE miner in two ways. First, we use an artificial data set to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ARE miner compared to two traditional process-oriented approaches. Second, we apply the ARE miner to a real-world data set from a Dutch healthcare institution. We show that the ARE miner generates comprehensible representations that lead to informative insights into statistical relations between actions, responses, and effects.

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Open reference in new window "From Action to Response to Effect: Mining Statistical Relations in Work Processes"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.03.017 

Abstract: Various advanced systems deploy artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to improve demand forecasting. Supply chain planners need to become familiar with these systems and trust them, considering real-world complexities and challenges the systems are exposed to. However, planners have the opportunity to intervene based on their experience or information that the systems may not capture. In this context, we study planners’ adjustments to AI-generated demand forecasts. We collect a large amount of data from a leading AI provider and a large European retailer. Our dataset contains 30 million forecasts at the SKU-store-day level for 2019, plus variables related to products, weather, and holidays. In our two-phase analysis, we aim to understand the adjustments made by planners and the quality of these adjustments. Within each phase, we first identify the drivers of adjustments and their quality using random forest, a well-known ML algorithm. Next, we investigate the collective effects of the different drivers on the occurrence and the quality of the adjustments using a decision tree approach. We find that product characteristics such as price, freshness, and discounts are important factors when making adjustments. Large positive adjustments occur more frequently but are often inaccurate, while large negative adjustments are generally more accurate but fewer in number. Thus, planners do not contribute to accuracy on average. Our findings provide insights for the better use of human knowledge in judgmental forecasting.

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Open reference in new window "Evaluating Human Behaviour in Response to AI Recommendations for Judgemental Forecasting"

DOI: 10.1093/rof/rfz002 

Abstract: Abstract: We test the proposition that investors' ability to cope with financial losses is much better than they expect. In a panel survey of investors from a large bank in the UK, we ask for their subjective ratings of anticipated returns and experienced returns. The time period covered by the panel (2008-2010) is one where investors experienced frequent losses and gains in their portfolios. This period offers a unique setting to evaluate investors' hedonic experiences. We examine how the subjective ratings behave relative to expected portfolio returns and experienced portfolio returns. Loss aversion is strong for anticipated outcomes; investors are twice as sensitive to negative expected returns as to positive expected returns. However, when evaluating experienced returns, the effect diminishes by more than half and is well below commonly found loss aversion coefficients. This suggests that a large part of investors' financial loss aversion results from an affective forecasting error.

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Open reference in new window "Financial Loss Aversion Illusion"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13690 

Abstract: In 2020, the world started a fight against a pandemic that has severely disrupted commercial and humanitarian supply chains. Humanitarian organizations (HOs), like the World Food Programme (WFP), adjusted their programs in order to manage this pandemic. One such program is cash and voucher assistance (CVA), which is used to bolster beneficiaries' freedom of choice regarding their consumption. In this vein, WFP supports local retailers to provide CVA to beneficiaries who do not have access to a functioning market. However, the operations of these stores can suffer from a very high transmission risk of COVID-19 unless preventive measures are put in place to reduce it. This paper discusses strategies that retailers and HOs can enact to maximize their service and dignity levels while minimizing transmission risk under a CVA program during a pandemic. We argue that HOs providing CVA programs can improve their assistance during a pandemic by implementing strategies that impact the retailing operations of their retailers.

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Open reference in new window "Impact of pandemics on humanitarian retailing operations: A voucher´s case"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0267640 

Abstract: COVID-19 induced restrictions ordered by governments around the world have been an exogenous shock to the music industry, which we divide into two affected groups: 1) live music events and 2) recorded music. While the impact on live music events is rather obvious, it is unclear how the current pandemic is affecting the recorded music market. Hence, we study consumers’ pre- and post-pandemic shifts in consumer spending (in euros) and music consumption (in hours) across live music events, as well as the digital and physical submarkets of recorded music, in the world’s fourth largest music market, Germany. Relying on an online bi-annual panel capturing five waves between winter 2018/19 and winter 2020/21, we find that the COVID-19 pandemic is accelerating the continuous trend towards digitalization of the music landscape with premium streaming being the biggest beneficiary. However, total monthly consumer spending on music decreased by more than 45% compared to pre-pandemic, with live music events and physical sales being the most severely affected. Surprisingly, music consumption in hours also decreased during the lockdown even though consumers spent more time at home.

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Open reference in new window "The impact of COVID-19 on music consumption and music spending"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13653 

Abstract: The present study focuses on the Mediterranean Sea migration crisis and investigates the effectiveness of search and rescue (SAR) operations alongside measures to reduce the number of deaths of migrants at sea. It also describes the stakeholders involved in SAR activities. The paper first analyzes secondary data and the results of 24 in-depth interviews in order to develop an analytical framework, which is then complemented by a system dynamics model to explore the complexity and interactions among stakeholders in SAR operations. The study shows that the death toll at sea can be reduced by enhancing cooperation among stakeholders by providing legal migration pathways under certain conditions and by engaging in more effective migrant detection and interception at sea. Lastly, raising potential migrants’ awareness about the risk of death during the sea crossing should be seen as an additional measure, while SAR activities should be maintained to prevent loss of life at sea.

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Open reference in new window "Saving migrants' lives at sea: Improving search and rescue operations"

DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0267978 

Abstract: Research consistently shows that students from academic households are more likely to enter higher education than students from non-academic households. These inequalities are only secondarily due to differences in performance (i.e., primary effects), but mostly due to students' decision making behavior (i.e., secondary effects). The relative share to which primary effects and secondary effects mediate the effect of students' educational background on their intention to enter higher education is affected by external conditions. One significant external influence that may have had an impact on social disparities in students' educational choices is the COVID-19 pandemic. Herein, we present data from N = 596 upper secondary students (41.6% from non-academic households) that were collected in Germany in April 2021. Building on rational choice theory, we scrutinized students' expected benefits (i.e., employment prospects and personal significance), costs (i.e., direct costs and opportunity costs), and subjective probability of success in pursuing higher education as important psychological pillars for their intention to enter higher education. Results show that about 14% of social differences in students' intention to enter higher education were due to primary effects, whereas almost 77% were explained by secondary effects. Specifically, we found that differences in the evaluation of benefits most strongly contributed to social inequalities in students' intention to enroll in higher education. Compared to research on pre- COVID-19 cohorts, our results point to shifts in existing patterns of inequalities in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Open reference in new window "Social disparities in students' intention to enter higher education during the COVID-19 pandemic"

DOI: 10.1177/15480518211062563 

Abstract: Academics have lamented that practitioners do not always adopt scientific evidence in practice, yet while academics preach evidence-based management (EBM), they do not always practice it. This paper extends prior literature on difficulties to engage in EBM with insights from behavioral integrity (i.e., the study of what makes individuals and collectives walk their talk). We focus on leader development, widely used but often critiqued for lacking evidence. Analyzing 60 interviews with academic directors of leadership centers at top business schools, we find that the selection of programs does not always align with scientific recommendations nor do schools always engage in high-quality program evaluation. Respondents further indicated a wide variety of challenges that help explain the disconnect between business schools claiming A but practicing B. Behavioral Integrity theory would argue these difficulties are rooted in the lack of an individually owned and collectively endorsed identity, an identity of an evidence-based leader developer (EBLD). A closer inspection of our data confirmed that the lack of a clear and salient EBLD identity makes it difficult for academics to walk their evidence-based leader development talk. We discuss how these findings can help facilitate more evidence-based leader development in an academic context.

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Open reference in new window "Walking our evidence-based talk: The status of leadership development in business schools"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13660 

Abstract: Disasters mobilize hundreds of humanitarian organizations. Despite the common aim to assist beneficiaries, coordination among humanitarian organizations remains a challenge. This is why the United Nations has formed clusters to facilitate information and resource exchange among humanitarian organizations. Yet, coordination failures in prior disasters raise questions as to the effectiveness of the cluster approach in coordinating relief efforts. To better understand barriers to coordination, we developed a grounded theory and augmented the theory with an agent-based simulation. Our theory discerns a cluster lead’s roles of facilitating coordination but also investing in its own ground operations. We find that specifically serving such a dual role impairs trust and consequent coordination among cluster members. The additional simulation findings generalize the detrimental effect of the cluster lead’s dual role versus a pure facilitator role and specifies it against various boundary conditions.

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Open reference in new window "Orchestrating coordination among humanitarian organizations"