The KLU faculty, post-docs, and PhD candidates regularly publish the results of their research in scientific journals. You will find a complete overview of all KLU publications below (e.g. articles in peer-reviewed journals, professional journals, books, working papers, and conference proceedings). Search for relevant terms and keywords, or filter the list by name, year of publication or type of publication. The references include DOIs and abstracts where available, and you can download them to your own reference database or platform. We regularly update the database with new publications.

Journal Articles (Peer-Reviewed)

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.is.2022.102035 

Abstract: Process mining techniques are valuable to gain insights into and help improve (work) processes. Many of these techniques focus on the sequential order in which activities are performed. Few of these techniques consider the statistical relations within processes. In particular, existing techniques do not allow insights into how responses to an event (action) result in desired or undesired outcomes (effects). We propose and formalize the ARE miner, a novel technique that allows us to analyze and understand these action-response-effect patterns. We take a statistical approach to uncover potential dependency relations in these patterns. The goal of this research is to generate processes that are: (1) appropriately represented, and (2) effectively filtered to show meaningful relations. We evaluate the ARE miner in two ways. First, we use an artificial data set to demonstrate the effectiveness of the ARE miner compared to two traditional process-oriented approaches. Second, we apply the ARE miner to a real-world data set from a Dutch healthcare institution. We show that the ARE miner generates comprehensible representations that lead to informative insights into statistical relations between actions, responses, and effects.

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Open reference in new window "From Action to Response to Effect: Mining Statistical Relations in Work Processes"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2018.09.049 

Abstract: This paper considers an unsignalized intersection used by two traffic streams. The first stream of cars is using a primary road, and has priority over the other stream. Cars belonging to the latter stream cross the primary road if the gaps between two subsequent cars on the primary road are larger than their critical headways. A question that naturally arises relates to the capacity of the secondary road: given the arrival pattern of cars on the primary road, what is the maximum arrival rate of low-priority cars that can be sustained? This paper addresses this issue by considering a compact model that sheds light on the dynamics of the considered unsignalized intersection. The model, which is of a queueing-theoretic nature, reveals interesting insights into the impact of the user behavior on the capacity. The contributions of this paper are threefold. First, we introduce a new way to analyze the capacity of the minor road. By representing the unsignalized intersection by an appropriately chosen Markovian model, the capacity can be expressed in terms of the solution of an elementary system of linear equations. The setup chosen is so flexible that it allows us to include a new form of bunching on the main road that allows for dependence between successive gaps, which we refer to as Markov platooning; this is the second contribution. The tractability of this model facilitates studying the impact that driver impatience and various platoon formations on the main road have on the capacity of the minor road. Finally, in numerical experiments we observe various surprising features of the aforementioned model. (published online first)

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Open reference in new window "Congestion analysis of unsignalized intersections: The impact of impatience and Markov platooning"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/rof/rfz002 

Abstract: Abstract: We test the proposition that investors' ability to cope with financial losses is much better than they expect. In a panel survey of investors from a large bank in the UK, we ask for their subjective ratings of anticipated returns and experienced returns. The time period covered by the panel (2008-2010) is one where investors experienced frequent losses and gains in their portfolios. This period offers a unique setting to evaluate investors' hedonic experiences. We examine how the subjective ratings behave relative to expected portfolio returns and experienced portfolio returns. Loss aversion is strong for anticipated outcomes; investors are twice as sensitive to negative expected returns as to positive expected returns. However, when evaluating experienced returns, the effect diminishes by more than half and is well below commonly found loss aversion coefficients. This suggests that a large part of investors' financial loss aversion results from an affective forecasting error.

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Open reference in new window "Financial Loss Aversion Illusion"

DOI: doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2020.02.015 

Abstract: Many port authorities have developed ambitious strategies to foster hinterland intermodal transportation. In addition, port-centric logistics, that is, the provision of distribution facilities and value-adding activities in the port area, has expanded in multiple ports. Obviously, such port-centric logistics may impact the operations in the hinterland substantially and could potentially reduce opportunities for intermodal transport in the hinterland. We analyze the interaction between port-centric logistics and hinterland intermodal transportation. We take a logistics service provider’s perspective and we include some key elements in the model, such as detention fees, extra handling, transport efficiency and empty container repositioning. We develop new analytical results identifying the optimal market areas of truck-only transportation, port-centric logistics and hinterland intermodal transportation. Our results show that tension between port-centric logistics and hinterland intermodal transportation is quite likely to happen in practice. We additionally study the use of continental containers as a way to reconcile port-centric logistics and hinterland intermodal transportation and we derive further results. We illustrate our results via an example and we highlight managerial insights.

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Open reference in new window "Identifying the market areas of port-centric logistics and hinterland intermodal transportation"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2021.1035 

Abstract: Problem definition: Process innovation is commonly claimed to be a major source of competitive advantage for firms. Despite this perceived influence, it has received substantially less attention than product innovation, and much uncertainty remains about its true association with firm performance. We investigate the relationship between a pharmaceutical firm’s portfolio of manufacturing process innovations and its economic performance. Academic/practical relevance: We uniquely conduct a multidimensional evaluation of a firm’s portfolio of manufacturing process innovations at the product level. This allows a quantitative evaluation of both the relative benefit of the different dimensions of a portfolio as well as the potential complementarities between these in different technological landscapes. Methodology: Through a collaboration with expert patent attorneys, we develop a unique longitudinal data set that combines secondary data and evaluations of a firm’s portfolio of process patents along two key dimensions: novelty and scope. We conduct econometric analyses for a large-scale sample of active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) whose product patents have expired and for which process innovation is thus the main source of competitive advantage. Results: We find a positive association between the presence of manufacturing process innovation and firm performance. However, although portfolio’s scope appears to always be beneficial to performance, the effect of novelty alone depends on the ruggedness of the technological landscape: negative in smoother landscapes and positive in more rugged landscapes. Results further suggest that novelty and scope of a portfolio of process innovations are complementary across technological landscapes. Managerial implications: Our results provide important practical insights that can inform the organization and execution of the research and development process across high-technology industries. In particular, although process innovations can be economically beneficial, investing in high-novelty process innovations without a corresponding high scope could jeopardize payoffs, especially in technological landscapes that are relatively smooth.

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Open reference in new window "Manufacturing Process Innovation in the Pharmaceutical Industry"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/poms.13793 

Abstract: The accumulation of experience that occurs with production is likely to impact an organization's ability to develop manufacturing process innovations. However, how different types of manufacturing experience relate to the characteristics of an organization's process innovation output is an open question. In this study, we investigate how a firm's accumulated related and unrelated manufacturing experiences are associated with this firm's ability to innovate its production methods. To characterize firms' process innovation output, we observe their portfolios of patented manufacturing inventions, which we qualitatively evaluate over time, through a unique collaboration with expert patent attorneys, along two critical dimensions: novelty and scope. We argue that related manufacturing experience leads to a better understanding of parts of the focal product's technological landscape that will allow the development of inventions of broader scope. However, it may also contribute to inertia in that it might restrict the firm's innovative activity to more familiar regions of the landscape, thereby limiting inventions' novelty. Conversely, manufacturing experience with products that are unrelated to the focal product is expected to stimulate and support a broader search that includes more distant regions of the focal product's technological landscape, which would lead to more novel manufacturing inventions. Yet, the application of this unrelated experience to the production of the focal product is likely to require additional exploratory effort in a not-well-understood region of the focal product's landscape, likely resulting in inventions of limited scope. In line with our hypotheses, we find that related (unrelated) manufacturing experience is positively (negatively) associated with inventions' scope, and negatively (positively) associated with inventions' novelty. In addition to supporting the relevance of a multidimensional evaluation of innovations, our findings provide practical guidance regarding the strategic implications of a firm's knowledge management.

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Open reference in new window "Novelty and scope of process innovation: The role of related and unrelated manufacturing experience"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.30844/I40M_22-1_41-44 

Abstract: Der IPCC-Report aus dem August 2021 ist die jüngste einer Reihe von deutlichen Warnungen vor den Folgen des voranschreitenden Klimawandels. Alle Wirtschaftsbereiche stehen mehr denn je in der Verantwortung, ihre Treibhausgasemissionen schnell und umfassend zu senken. Die Logistik macht etwa 10 % des globalen CO2-Ausstoßes aus. Der größte Anteil entfällt auf den Straßengüterverkehr. Aufgrund hoher Wachstumsraten, der anhaltenden Abhängigkeit von fossilen Brennstoffen und der hohen Fragmentierung des Markts ist die Senkung der CO2-Emissionen bzw. die sogenannte Dekarbonisierung des Straßengüterverkehrs besonders herausfordernd. Auf Basis der Ergebnisse einer großen Umfrage wird in diesem Beitrag herausgearbeitet, wie kleine Transportdienstleister und ihre Auftraggeber einen Beitrag zur Erreichung globaler Klimaziele leisten können. Im ersten Schritt kann eine genauere Messung der CO2-Emissionen dabei helfen, die Vorteilhaftigkeit lange bekannter aber nicht immer genutzter Dekarbonisierungsmaßnahmen klar herauszustellen. Auftraggeber können ihre Transportdienstleister dann zusätzlich mit passenden Anreizsystemen motivieren und unterstützen.

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Open reference in new window "Maßnahmen und Anreize zur Senkung von CO2-Emissionen - Wie kleine Transportdienstleister und ihre Auftraggeber einem klimafreundlichen Straßengüterverkehr näherkommen können"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/joms.12855 

Abstract: There are myriad organizational anecdotes about middle managers who advance their careers by ingratiating themselves with their superiors while exploiting and abusing their subordinates. We formally define this behavioral combination as the Kiss-Up-Kick-Down (KUKD) phenomenon and develop a resource-focused framework that not only explains when middle managers will engage in KUKD, but also how such behavior helps their career progression via three resource-related pathways: One path involving sponsorship resource gains from superiors, another path involving productive resource gains from subordinates, and an intra-individual path related to middle managers’ own psychological resources. Staying within the resource framework, we theorize that superiors and subordinates become likely targets of KUKD when the former is resource-poor and the latter is resource-rich. Finally, we deliberate on the role of time as a crucial boundary condition: not only in terms of when middle managers engage in KUKD behaviors, but also how such actions involve diminishing returns.

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Open reference in new window "Kiss-Up-Kick-Down to Get Ahead: A Resource Perspective on How, When, Why, and With Whom Middle Managers Use Ingratiatory and Exploitative Behaviors to Advance their Careers"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1057/s41278-022-00226-w 

Abstract: This paper considers two current challenges in the governance of maritime transport, specifically container shipping. The first is the oligopolistic market structure of container shipping, the downsides of which became evident during the COVID-19 pandemic. The second challenge is climate change, both the need to reduce emissions to zero by 2050 and to adapt to effects that are already locked in. The paper reviews the academic and policy literature and unveils a link between these market and environmental challenges which result from a focus on efficiency without considering negative effects such as diseconomies of scale and induced traffic, leading to a continued rise in total industry carbon emissions. The review likewise identifies links in how policy-makers react to the two challenges. Regulators could remove anti-trust exemptions from carriers, and policy-makers are being pushed to provide strict decarbonisation targets with a coherent timeline for ending the use of fossil fuels. Recent thinking on ecological economics, degrowth and steady-state economics is introduced as the paradigm shift that could link these two policy evolutions.

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Open reference in new window "Maritime governance after COVID-19: how responses to market developments and environmental challenges lead towards degrowth"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2022.103283 

Abstract: Alternative, and especially renewable, marine fuels are needed to reduce the environmental and climate impacts of the shipping sector. This paper investigates the business case for hydrogen as an alternative fuel in a new-built vessel utilizing fuel cells and liquefied hydrogen. A real option approach is used to model the optimal time and costs for investment, as well as the value of deferring an investment as a result of uncertainty. This model is then used to assess the impact of a carbon tax on a ship owner’s investment decision. A low carbon tax results in ship owners deferring investments, which then slows the uptake of the technology. We recommend that policymakers set a high carbon tax at an early stage in order to help hydrogen compete with fossil fuels. A clear and timely policy design promotes further investments and accelerates the uptake of new technologies that can fulfill decarbonization targets.

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Open reference in new window "Bridging the Maritime-Hydrogen Cost-Gap: Real options analysis of policy alternatives"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1186/s41072-021-00103-4 

Abstract: This study examines the concept of transparency as practiced (or not) in ports. It explores the availability of information to the general public and port stakeholders through the ports’ most public face—its website, studying public ports in North America, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean. This exploratory research centred on identifying the parameters that would be useful for the general public to have sufficient information to monitor, review and in many cases, participate in the decision-making processes carried out by the port authority, irrespective of whether or not laws mandate such disclosure. Fifty-one items were identified for the examination of each port’s website, focusing primarily on four major categories: decision-making governance, port communications and accessibility, transparency in reporting and in port operational activities. Using nine items as proxies for the 51, the research reveals uneven levels of port transparency both regionally and by governance model. The study reveals a need for increasing and differentiating the existing levels and standards of transparency in the governance of the port industry, and for greater consistency between ports within and across regions. The study concludes with a research agenda for future research.

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Open reference in new window "Transparency in port governance: setting a research agenda"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1002/nav.22047 

Abstract: A high-tech manufacturer often produces products that consist of many modules. These modules are either sourced from one of its suppliers or produced in-house. In this paper, we study the common case of an assembly system in which one module is sourced from a supplier with a fixed lead-time, while the other module is produced by the manufacturer itself in a make-to-order production system. Since unavailability of one of the modules has costly consequences for the production of the end-product, it is important to coordinate between the ordering policy for one module and the production of the other. We propose an order policy for the lead-time module with base-stock levels depending on the number of outstanding orders in the production system of the in-house produced module. We prove monotonicity properties of this policy and show optimality. Furthermore, we conduct a computational experiment to evaluate how the costs of this policy compare to those of a policy with fixed base-stock levels and show that average savings of up to 17% are attained.

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Open reference in new window "Synchronization in a two-supplier assembly system: Combining a fixed lead-time module with capacitated make-to-order production"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2021.10.009 

Abstract: Unlike consumer goods industry, a high-tech manufacturer (OEM) often amortizes new product development costs over multiple generations, where demand for each generation is based on advance orders (i.e., known demand) and additional uncertain demand. Also, due to economic regulatory reasons, high-tech OEMs usually source from a single supplier. Relative to the high retail price, the costs for a supplier of producing high-tech components are low. Consequently, incentives are misaligned: the OEM faces relatively high under-stock costs and the supplier faces high over-stock costs. In this paper, we examine supply contracts that are intended to align the incentives between a high-tech OEM and a supplier so that the supplier will invest adequate and yet non-verifiable capacity to meet the OEM’s demand. When focusing on a single generation, the manufacturer can coordinate a decentralized supply chain and extract all surplus by augmenting a traditional wholesale price contract with a “contingent penalty” should the supplier fail to fulfill the OEM’s demand. When the resulting penalty is too high to be enforceable, we consider a new class of “contingent renewal” wholesale price contracts with a stipulation: the OEM will renew the contract with the incumbent supplier for the next generation only when the supplier can fulfill the demand for the current generation. By using non-renewal as an implicit penalty, we show that the contingent renewal contract can coordinate the supply chain. While the OEM can capture the bulk of the supply chain profit, this innovative contract cannot enable the OEM to extract the entire surplus.

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Open reference in new window "Direct versus indirect penalties for supply contracts in high-tech industry"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jbfa.12649 

Abstract: We study the driving forces behind the positive association observed between corporate investment and stock market valuation, and how they interact with managerial equity incentives and informativeness of investment. We build a dynamic model where managers use investment choices to influence investors' opinions about firms' future prospects and increase the market valuation. The incentives to manipulate the valuation processes increase with managerial equity incentives and informativeness of investment. Our empirical findings support the model's predictions that the tendency of using investment to boost market valuation is stronger when managerial stock ownership is high or when earnings quality is low (i.e., there is strong reliance on investment for information).

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Open reference in new window "Corporate investment and stock market valuation"

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejor.2022.03.017 

Abstract: Various advanced systems deploy artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) to improve demand forecasting. Supply chain planners need to become familiar with these systems and trust them, considering real-world complexities and challenges the systems are exposed to. However, planners have the opportunity to intervene based on their experience or information that the systems may not capture. In this context, we study planners’ adjustments to AI-generated demand forecasts. We collect a large amount of data from a leading AI provider and a large European retailer. Our dataset contains 30 million forecasts at the SKU-store-day level for 2019, plus variables related to products, weather, and holidays. In our two-phase analysis, we aim to understand the adjustments made by planners and the quality of these adjustments. Within each phase, we first identify the drivers of adjustments and their quality using random forest, a well-known ML algorithm. Next, we investigate the collective effects of the different drivers on the occurrence and the quality of the adjustments using a decision tree approach. We find that product characteristics such as price, freshness, and discounts are important factors when making adjustments. Large positive adjustments occur more frequently but are often inaccurate, while large negative adjustments are generally more accurate but fewer in number. Thus, planners do not contribute to accuracy on average. Our findings provide insights for the better use of human knowledge in judgmental forecasting.

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Open reference in new window "Evaluating Human Behaviour in Response to AI Recommendations for Judgemental Forecasting"