Piecyk, Maja I. and Alan C. McKinnon

Application of the Delphi method to the forecasting of long-term trends in road freight, logistics and related CO2 emissions

International Journal of Transport Economics, 15 (2): 266-241, (2013).

Copy reference link   DOI: 10.1007/BF03372911

Abstract: This article, from a special issue on freight transport, describes the use of the Delphi method to forecast long-term trends in road freight, logistics, and related carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. A Delphi survey usually involves sending a first-round questionnaire to a number of respondents, collating and analyzing the data, and then recirculating the questionnaire, along with a summary of the results. The respondents are asked to confirm or modify their previous responses. The authors note that the Delphi survey method is a popular forecasting technique that is particularly useful in mid- and long-term forecasting. They use a case study of a large two-round Delphi survey undertaken in the United Kingdom (UK) to elicit projections of long-term trends in road freight and logistics variables. These projections were then used to model UK road freight-related CO2 emissions up to the year 2020. One section compares the results found in the Delphi study with five other studies on the topic: Mobility 2030; European Energy and Transport Trends to 2030 (EET); the Great Britain Freight Model (GBFM); the National Transport Model (NTM); and TREMOVE, a transport and emission model developed for the European Commission. The authors conclude that, in situations where disaggregated forecast is required to gain insight and exploration of reasons behind predicted future trends is sought, the Delphi method combined with the survey technique offers a valuable instrument to elicit reliable projections.

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