Liu, Heng, Hanno Friedrich and Li Zhang (2013)

Modeling of Freight Transport Distribution in Germany – A Discussion of Traditional Distribution Models and a new Procedure for Performance Improvement

in: Selected Proceedings of the WCTRS Conference on Transportation Research, (2013).

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Abstract: This work aims to discuss modeling issues on solving the transport distribution problem in freight transport. The traditional distribution model – the Gravity Model – is introduced in detail with the focus on its forecasting capability of freight transport distribution. Through analyses on the base of observed and predicted data of freight transport in Germany, it is found that, compared to applying the Gravity Model, directly balancing the observed distribution from the last period using the Furness Method can generate more closer predictions to the official predictions in a planning project of the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development. However, the re is a doubt about whether this Furness Method itself brings about an impact on the deterrence exponent. Based on the proposition that the Furness Method dilutes the deterrence effect of transport costs, a compensating procedure is developed in this work as a supplement to the traditional process, offering a new thinking to improve the prediction performance of distribution models.

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